KUALA LUMPUR, May 7 — Malaysia could face a sharp drop in domestic rice production later this year due to an extreme El Niño event, raising concerns about food security as the country remains reliant on imports for nearly half its supply.
A senior official from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (KPKM) said projections point to a severe weather phenomenon – dubbed the “Godzilla El Niño” – that could significantly disrupt crop yields across the region.
“But the risk is still there because we expect that in the third and fourth quarters of this year, including in Malaysia, there will be a very severe El Niño phenomenon,” said KPKM deputy secretary-general (policy) Norazman Ayob at an event at Universiti Putra Malaysia last April 26.
“Our Meteorological Department has estimated an extreme case of El Niño – they even call it the ‘Godzilla El Niño’. This extreme weather will affect Malaysia and countries in the region, and when that happens, there will be a reduction in national rice production.”
Malaysia currently produces only about 52 per cent of its rice needs, leaving it dependent on imports from countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, India, and Pakistan.
Norazman warned that the impact of extreme weather could be particularly severe in Malaysia’s main rice-producing regions.
“In the northern region – Perlis, Kedah, Penang, and to some extent, Perak – these states produce about 40 per cent of the country’s rice requirements.
“But in the second half of this year, if we do not see good weather, that 40 per cent could drop to 20 per cent. When that happens, we will need to import more rice, and we hope imports will continue,” Norazman said.
While current stock levels remain stable, Norazman cautioned against panic buying, noting that domestic supply could last several months if consumption remains controlled.
“If each one of us does not panic buy, and you do not buy more than what you require for your household on a monthly basis for rice, we can sustain ourselves for the next seven months even if we do not import any rice at all.
“As things stand now, don’t worry, we have enough for seven months. But please do not go out and buy large amounts of rice to stock up, or ask your relatives to do so. Please don’t do that,” Norazman said.
He assured the public that the government had contingency plans in place to manage supply disruptions. “I just want to share that we already have plans in place to ensure that food supply security remains intact.”
Fertiliser Risks Add Pressure
Beyond weather shocks, Malaysia’s heavy reliance on imported fertilisers poses another vulnerability to agricultural production.
“Another risk factor in our agriculture sector, and in other countries as well, is fertiliser supply. As we speak, all countries are facing another issue, apart from oil and gas, which is fertilisers,” Norazman said.
Malaysia imports the vast majority of its fertilisers, particularly key inputs such as potassium and phosphate.
“For Malaysia, we import as much as 98 per cent of our fertilisers. Fertilisers come in three main types – nitrogen, potassium, and phosphate. For potassium and phosphate, we do not produce them at all in this country. For nitrogen, most of what we use is urea,” Norazman explained.
While urea supply is relatively secure through domestic production by Petronas, through its subsidiary Petronas Chemicals Group Berhad, with subsidised distribution supported by the National Farmers’ Organisation (Nafas), other fertiliser inputs remain exposed to global supply constraints.
“For oil palm plantations, they require ammonium fluoride and ammonium sulphate. Around 80 to 90 per cent of ammonium fluoride is imported from China,” Norazman said.
“Since March, China has imposed export restrictions on nitrogen and potassium fertilisers, as well as some phosphate-based fertilisers. China has said they will not export fertilisers to the rest of the world.”
As a result, Malaysia is awaiting a potential easing of export restrictions later in the year.
“So now we have to wait for China to lift these export restrictions, which they will only do after their spring planting season. We are hoping that by August or September, China will reopen exports.
“If not, we may face fertiliser shortages, particularly in the oil palm sector. But for other agriculture sectors, especially food production, I think supply is still manageable for now, as we have been engaging with fertiliser industry associations on a weekly basis,” Norazman said.
