The United Nations Secretary-General described on April 5, 2022, the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as “a litany of broken climate promises”, and reminded the world that it is “on a fast track to climate disaster”.
The Malaysian government has not been providing much information about the effects of climate change in the country. As such, one has to turn to international organisations which have collected and collated such publications.
The data in this article was culled from the World Bank and Asian Development Banks’ 2021 publication Climate Risk Country Profile – Malaysia and the United Nations’ 2021 publication 2020 Status Report On Disaster Risk Reduction In Malaysia.
Temperature
According to the World Bank, “Between 1970 – 2013, Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak regions experienced surface mean temperature increase of 0.14°C – 0.25°C per decade. Surface maximum temperatures increased by 0.17°C – 0.22°C per decade during the same period, while surface minimum temperatures increased by 0.20°C – 0.32°C per decade”.
It is projected that the frequency and intensity of heat waves experienced will increase significantly, due to the warming climate.
Rainfall And Floods
The World Bank reported Mayowa et al’s 2015 study of rainfall trends on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia between 1970 and 2010, in which they observed a significant increase in annual rainfall during the monsoon period, as well as an increase in the number of days classified as heavy rainfall (days with rainfall >20mm).
The UN reported research which found that the maximum annual rainfall intensity has increased substantially, i.e. “the one-hour, three-hour, and six-hour periods of rain between 2000 and 2007 have risen by 17 per cent, 29 per cent, and 31 per cent respectively, compared with the period of 1970 – 1980”.
Malaysia is particularly vulnerable to flooding, with the frequency and extremity of flood events having increased in recent decades. Residents in the Klang Valley may recall severe floods in the past two years, compared to yesteryears when floods were uncommon.
The UN reported research that found that about 29,800 square kilometres of land, within which five million people reside, feel the brunt of annual floods. It warned that it is projected that the area affected could increase due to rising sea levels, which may reach 0.25 to 0.5 metres, by 2100, in Peninsular Malaysia and potentially exceed 1.06 metres in Sabah.
The World Bank reported research which suggest that the median increase in the population affected by an extreme (90th percentile) river flood by 2035 to 2044 as a result of climate change is approximately 102,290 people, which represents an increase of 140 per cent from the population exposed in 1971 to 2004.
According to the World Bank, the intensity of tropical storms in Southeast Asia is projected to increase due to climate change.
“This is likely to impact the frequency and intensity of storm surge events Malaysia experiences. Work by Dasgupta et al assesses the potential increase in a one in 100-year storm surge zone under one meter of sea-level rise (the upper end of projected rises by the end of the 21st century), suggesting an increase in the impact area of around 24 per cent, and an increase in the population affected of around 34 per cent”.
Deforestation
Anyone on a flight from Sabah or Sarawak to Peninsular Malaysia cannot help but be saddened by the sight of large tracts of deforestation.
According to Global Forest Watch, “From 2002 to 2021, Malaysia lost 2.77 Mha (million hectares) of humid primary forest, making up 33 per cent of its total tree cover loss in the same time period. Total area of humid primary forest in Malaysia decreased by 17 per cent in this time period. From 2001 to 2021, Malaysia lost 8.67 Mha of tree cover, equivalent to a 29 per cent decrease in tree cover since 2000”.
Sarawak, Sabah and Pahang had the highest tree cover loss of 3.11 Mha, 1.74 Mha, and 1.19 Mha respectively, compared to the national 542 kha.
Coastal Areas
The World Bank reported a study which assessed the “historical sea-level rise over the period 1993–2015 at around 3.3 mm per year east of Malaysia, and around 5.0 mm per year west of Malaysia”.
According to the World Bank: “Rising sea levels are predicted to have significant negative impacts for Malaysia’s coastal zone, with the most impact felt in the east coast. Some suggest by 2040, potentially all of Malaysia’s mangrove zone could become submerged and by 2060, sea-level rise might impact the country’s industrial zones. Under one meter of sea-level rise, around 7,000 km2 of coastal land would be at risk. Approximately six per cent of palm oil production and four percent of rubber production is currently at risk from sea-level rise”.
Food Production
Climate change influences food production directly and indirectly, with adverse effects on crop growth processes. The direct effects include alterations to carbon dioxide availability, precipitation and temperatures. The indirect effects include impacts on water availability and seasonality; soil organic matter and erosion; changes in pest and disease profiles; new invasive species; and decline in arable areas due to the submergence of coastal areas.
According to the World Bank: “Modelling suggests that occurrence of droughts and floods early in the rice growing season could reduce yields by up to 60 per cent. Drought conditions may result in an inability to cultivate rubber, palm oil and cocoa”.
Urbanisation And Energy
There is a relationship between heat stress and labour productivity, household consumption patterns, and living standards. This is compounded by Urban Heat Island (UHI) situations, in which dark surfaces, residential, and industrial sources of heat, an absence of vegetation, and air pollution can increase temperatures higher than in rural surroundings, commonly anywhere in the range of 0.1 to 3°C in global mega-cities.
UHI temperatures in the range of 4 to 6°C have been recorded in Kuala Lumpur, typically peaking at night time. This directly impacts human health and labour productivity.
UHI contributes to haze pollution events, which have considerable economic effects, e.g. it was estimated that the haze damage in Kuala Lumpur in 1997 was US$321 million.
In addition, research suggests that a one-degree increase in ambient temperature can result in an average 0.5 to 8.5 per cent increase in electricity demand, with its consequential impact on climate change.
Summary
The effects of climate change are already impacting Malaysia. It would be sheer myopic thinking, at best, for any quarter to claim otherwise.
It was reported on June 21, 2022 that the Malaysia Climate Change Action Council has announced actions to prepare for climate change.
In order for the public to be better able to play their part in climate change adaptations, we must be informed about the effects of climate change in Malaysia. Whither public information?
Dr Milton Lum is a Past President of the Federation of Private Medical Associations, Malaysia and the Malaysian Medical Association. This article is not intended to replace, dictate or define evaluation by a qualified doctor. The views expressed do not represent that of any organisation the writer is associated with.
- This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of CodeBlue.
