KUALA LUMPUR, August 17 — Covid-19 is surging throughout six states under Phase Two of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) with poor vaccination coverage, as infections, hospital admissions, and deaths rapidly rise.
CodeBlue conducted an analysis on four main Covid-19 indicators in Pahang, Kelantan, Penang, Perak, Sabah, and Terengganu in the past 11 weeks from June 1 — daily new cases, daily new fatalities, daily new hospital admissions, and total intensive care unit (ICU) cases, based on rolling seven-day averages — to measure the growth of the epidemic in the six states.
Daily coronavirus infections in all six states multiplied nine to 20-fold from June to date, with the rising case trajectory in Penang, Perak, Sabah, and Terengganu closely matching mortality trends.
Pahang, Kelantan, Penang, Perak, and Sabah reported in the past week historical high Covid-19 case tallies since the start of the Malaysian epidemic, except for Terengganu that reported 24-hour record high infections on July 30.
As of August 14, the ICU bed occupancy rate of Covid-19 patients in four of the six states exceeded 70 per cent — Terengganu (74 per cent), Sabah (92 per cent), Kelantan (88 per cent), Pahang (76 per cent) — whereas Perak (111 per cent) and Penang (104 per cent) had more Covid-19 cases requiring critical care than the number of ICU beds available for coronavirus patients.
As of August 16, all the six states under Phase Two have only completed Covid-19 vaccination for less than 40 per cent of adults — Penang (38.1 per cent), Terengganu (36.3 per cent), Perak (36.2 per cent), Pahang (33.5 per cent), Kelantan (29.9 per cent), and Sabah (23.6 per cent).
After a fluctuation in daily Covid-19 cases from June to mid-July, Perak’s Covid-19 incidence began to rise consistently from July 15. On July 15, the state reported 228 cases based on a rolling seven-day average and reached 1,069 cases on August 15 before reducing slightly to 938 the next day. From July 16, Perak started to register more than one daily Covid-19 deaths on average and peaked at 11 cases on August 16.
From June 16 until June 23, Perak reported less than 20 new hospital admissions for Covid-19 based on a rolling seven-day average. From June 24 to July 8, the state registered 20 to 29 cases daily before increasing to 101 cases on August 7. On August 16, the state reported an average of 129 new Covid-19 hospital admissions, six times more cases compared to the final week of June.
Perak reported a decrease in ICU Covid-19 cases in June. From 60 critical Covid-19 cases on June 1, the number reduced to 17 on June 30 based on a rolling seven-day average before reporting more than 100 cases from July 30 onwards. On August 14, the state had an average of 109 critical Covid-19 patients.
From July 9, Penang observed a rising trend in its daily Covid-19 cases, based on a rolling seven-day average. From 168 cases on July 9, the state reported 1,184 fresh Covid-19 infections on August 16. The average daily Covid-19 deaths also increased from one case on July 15 to 11 cases on August 16.
New Covid-19 hospital admissions in Penang decreased from June 1 (46 cases) to June 24 (16 cases) before increasing to 40 cases on July 21, based on a rolling seven-day average. From then, the state registered 30 to 50 hospital admissions until August 9 before reporting an average of 63 cases on August 10 and 85 cases on August 14.
From June 1 to June 23, Penang’s critical Covid-19 patients ranged from 30 to 39 before reporting less than 30 cases from June 24 until July 1, based on a rolling seven-day average. From July 3 until July 22 the state reported 30 cases and above (except July 7 and 8), before reaching 50 cases on July 23. Since then, critical Covid-19 cases in the state increased continuously and reached 69 on August 14, based on a rolling seven-day average.
Sabah’s fresh Covid-19 infections began to increase from June 27. In less than one month, from July 23, Covid-19 deaths also increased in Sabah.
On August 16, the state reported 1,553 Covid-19 infections based on a rolling seven-day average, almost nine times more than 175 cases on June 27. From an average of one Covid-19 death on July 23, death cases increased to 15 on August 16 in Sabah.
Based on a rolling seven-day average, new Covid-19 hospital admissions in Sabah reduced from June 1 (52 cases) until July 16 (39 cases) before increasing again to more than 100 cases on July 28, peaking at 141 cases on August 6. On August 14, Sabah recorded an average of 137 new Covid-19 hospital admissions.
Sabah’s critical Covid-19 patients who received treatment in ICU also increased from 67 on June 1 to 99 cases on June 15 before decreasing to 54 on July 11, based on a rolling seven-day average. From July 12 to 21, the state reported less than 60 Covid-19 patients in ICU before increasing to more than 100 cases from August 4. On August 14, Sabah had an average of 144 critical Covid-19 patients who received treatment in ICU.
Kelantan’s daily new Covid-19 infections started to increase from July and steadily picked up from July 7 (115 cases) based on a rolling seven-day average and increased to 1,142 cases, on August 16.
However, average new Covid-19 deaths showed a decline from June 6 (six deaths) to 20 (one death) and increased again to four cases on June 27. The deaths then declined to zero on July 25 before increasing again to three on August 1. From August 1 until August 16, the state reported an average of two to three Covid-19 deaths per day.
Based on a rolling seven-day average, Kelantan saw 36 new hospital admissions for Covid-19 on July 8. In just one month, average new hospital admissions grew to 101 on August 7. From then until August 14, the state reported more than 100 new hospital admissions daily for Covid-19 and admitted an average of 128 Covid-19 patients on August 14.
Kelantan reported 48 critical Covid-19 patients on June 1 and reduced to 28 cases on July 14 before increasing again to 52 on August 14, based on a rolling seven-day average.
Starting from June 21, Pahang’s daily Covid-19 cases, based on a rolling seven-day average, started to rise from 58 cases to 670 cases on August 16. The state reported an average of one Covid-19 death on June 1, increased to seven deaths on July 24, before reaching six deaths on August 9. From August 10 to 15, Pahang reported an average of five to six Covid-19 deaths per day before reaching three cases yesterday.
A total of 21 new Covid-19 patients on average were admitted in Pahang on June 20 and on August 14, new Covid-19 hospital admissions in the state more than tripled to 65 cases.
From June 7 to July 3, Pahang reported less than 30 Covid-19 patients in ICU before reporting 30 to 39 cases from July 4 until 20, based on a rolling seven-day average. From July 21, until August 1, Pahang had 40 to 49 critical Covid-19 patients, increasing continuously to 66 cases on average until August 12. As of August 14, the state had an average of 60 critical Covid-19 cases.
From June 30 onwards, Covid-19 cases began to grow in Terengganu. From 29 daily cases on June 30 based on a rolling seven-day average, Terengganu reported more than 500 cases on August 6 (515 cases) and reached 544 cases on August 16.
An average of one Covid-19 death was recorded in Terengganu on July 9 after recording zero death from June 28 until July 8 consecutively. From July 21, the state recorded more than one Covid-19 death and peaked at five cases on August 4 and August 15.
From June 16 until July 20, Terengganu’s new hospital admissions for Covid-19 patients were below 20 cases, based on a rolling seven-day average. Starting from July 21, new admissions for Covid-19 grew in the state, increasing to an average of 50 cases on August 10 and 48 cases on August 14. In just less than a month, Terengganu witnessed a two-fold increase in new Covid-19 hospital admissions.
After increasing from 13 cases on June 1 to 21 cases on June 9, critical Covid-19 patients in Terengganu decreased to six on June 30, based on a rolling seven-day average. Starting from July 4, Covid-19 patients in ICU started to increase from an average of seven cases to 34 cases on August 12 and 32 cases on August 14.